Real Estate Information

We are mid way through the month of September, isn’t it great that summer has finally arrived?  We had an exceptional run of nice days last week and the weather over the weekend was as nice a weekend as I can remember in a long time.  I had occasion to attend our statewide Wisconsin Realtor Convention last week and had an opportunity to brainstorm with a number of agents from across the state on the current market conditions.  Many areas, especially the in larger markets, are definitely seeing signs of the market picking up and much of that credit is being given to the $8,000 tax credit being offered to first time Buyers.  That program is due to expire at the end of November and there is some talk of a possible extension or expansion of the program in the works.  That would be good news for those of us in markets with higher price ranges, especially if the program is expanded to go beyond just first time Buyers.  The second home market here is the southern part of the state as well as the northern part of the state remains sluggish with lots of questions in terms of what it will take to give the second home Buyers the confidence to decide to move forward and take some action now.  With much concern about job losses, healthcare debates, talk of higher taxes and the possibility of increasing deficits, it makes the job of selling people on the idea of considering a second home purchase at this time increasingly difficult.   I’ve had several discussions the last couple of weeks with potential Buyers who think that they can come in with extremely low, unrealistic offers and that Sellers should be willing to give them serious consideration.  There was an article in the Chicago Tribune recently that I have been able to use with many of these types of Buyers that basically says Sellers in several of the resort markets are not giving their properties away and that Buyers need to keep this in mind when it comes to second homes.  There was a local real estate agent interviewed who has done very little second home business around the lake but in spite of that, he made some good points and the author of the article did not seem to try to change the basic message he and the agents from the other markets seemed to be making.   I’ve included a link to that article below.  I remain hopeful that this will be the year that the post Labor Day selling season will outperform the traditional summer season and that we’ll end the year on a high note. 

Chicago Tribune Article

Well we’re into August now and many people are still wondering when summer will arrive.  I heard on the radio this morning that it may be 95 degrees this weekend so maybe there is still hope that we’ll see some nice weather and the effect that it seems to have on bringing out the potential Buyers.  I’m encouraged that there have been some positive indications in the media that the market may be to the point of a possible turn around.  But before any of us get too excited, I think we need to remember these are just predictions and it will take some time for any of the positive forecasts to show up as actual results.  But at least there are some positive things being said. 

It is an ongoing, literally everyday struggle to work with Buyers today in this market who are anywhere from simply afraid or concerned about making a move to being downright negative and pessimistic about the real estate market, all as a result of everything they hear and read and have been told about these challenging times.  Our only response is to try to point out the favorable interest rates and some very attractive asking prices that have been adjusted by some Sellers in response to lengthy times on the market and the reduced number of sales taking place across the board. 

Some segments of the market have been extremely slow as far as activity and showings, in spite of our advertising and marketing efforts.  The only good thing is that both the showings and the lack of showings tend to run in spurts, so we often have the possibility of making up for lost ground in a short period of time.  We’ll continue to push forward and remain optimistic that the market will respond favorably to some of the recent news, and that we will be successful in finding a Buyer for your property in the very near future.  I’ve included links to some of the articles I mentioned for your review.

USATODAY Article on Pending Home Sales

USAToday Article on Manufacturing

CNNMoney Interview

USATODAY Article on Housing Rebound

USATODAY Article on Best July for the Dow in 20 years

Well, it’s the middle of August and we are finally getting the nice summer type weather we’ve been hoping for over the last few months.  Hopefully we’ll see a benefit from that in the form of more people out looking and some showings, as there has been a distinct reduction in the number of showings over the last few weeks.  Across the board, the showing activity has been abnormally reduced from what we would normally expect to see this time of year.  I know of several instances where there has been literally little or no showing activity for weeks, especially in the upper end of the market on Lake Geneva, Delavan and other lakes in the area. 

This year continues to be a year of struggle for almost everything from finding Buyers who are willing to take action to challenges with lenders and the whole appraisal process, which has changed dramatically over the last few months.   I’ve attached the graph below that is supposed to represent the “normal” cycle in real estate.  I hope we are at the point of the cycle where we have passed the bottom and are on the move upward and that we’ll be able to look back a few months from now and say this was the turning point.   Here are a couple of interesting articles I ran across this week:

Unusual weather for summer of '09

It’s hard to believe we are approaching the middle of June.  The good news is the real estate activity in general has begun to show some signs of picking up.  I am a little surprised by the number of potential Sellers I have been speaking with recently who are considering placing their property on the market at this time.  In many cases, the listing inventory of certain property types and price ranges is continuing to go up to unusually high levels, when compared with past years. 

The Buyer activity has shown some signs of picking up, but not to the same level and extent as with Sellers, at least so far.  The Buyer activity is also very spotty with no real trend that I have been able to discern between the various property types and or price ranges.  The same is true with the number of showings or lack of showings that I am seeing with some of my listings, some are being shown but many are not, in spite of our efforts. 

I have written a couple of offers this week, but getting Buyers to the point of making a decision to move forward is still a real struggle.  Having said all that, I am encouraged by some things that I’m observing in the market.  There were two Lake Geneva lakefront closings this week, and as I go through the Multiple Listing Service doing searches for various property, it’s nice to see the “accepted offer” tag showing up again here and there on some of the properties.  I believe it also sends a positive message to the buying public when we are able to send out a report that shows some of these properties as being under contract. 

With the disappointing weather we had last weekend, I was still very busy with showings on both days and, this has been an extremely busy week for me as well.  Hopefully that is a sign of good things to come.  I firmly believe that there are some very good values in the market today and with the recent slight increase in interest rates, that may help us to get the buying public to step up to the plate and take some action now.

I hope you had an enjoyable Memorial Day weekend.  It was one of the few in recent memory where the weatherman cooperated with three nice days in a row.  That was good for us in the real estate business, although the amount of showings and activity was somewhat mixed, which is not unusual for a Holiday weekend.  Often if the weather is nice, people are out enjoying the various family activities.  I had one customer Email me on Friday who said he was going to up here in the area, but I’d only hear from him to show his family property, if it rained. 

There is much anticipation this time of the year that we will begin to see an increase in activity that will lead to more showings and eventually to sales.  At our weekly sales meeting on Tuesday morning there was mention of a number of accepted offers that had come together over the last week which is always an encouraging sign and can be an indication of good things to come, but is not something that gets reflected in the “closed” statistics that you read about.  Those “closed” numbers continue to be down from past years in many if not most markets and you will most likely hear or read about the average sales prices being down as well.  This is due to a large extent to bank owned foreclosure properties that are selling in many areas, and are often at substantially discounted prices, which in turn brings the “average” numbers down. 

I read an article about a report out this week that talked about a substantial increase in consumer confidence, and its effect on the stock market.  I think the same thing applies to real estate.  In many cases, it is all about perception and timing.  Our job is to help the buying public to understand what is really going on in the market and be able to explain why some of these numbers are down.  Pointing out the differences in our market and how we don’t have many of the negative factors here that are affecting some of the more troubled markets, is what we are up against on an almost daily basis.  Hopefully, the news about real estate will improve over the next few summer months.

The grass is turning green and the leaves seem to be popping out almost overnight these days.  Definitely signs that Spring is here.  The month of May has also begun to show some signs of life in the real estate market.  We are “beginning” to see some activity from people who are probably being motivated by the nicer weather and the slow but steady increase of some optimistic signals coming from the financial markets.  I don’t mean to hint that things have gotten back to “normal” with regard to the real estate market, but we are at least seeing signs that things may not be as bad as some would believe and the so called “bottom” may have finally arrived.  It will be interesting to look back a few months down the road and see if May was the beginning of a turn around.  Ironically, one of our next struggles is dealing with Buyers’ numerous questions about the current market and its effect on prices.  Many markets are seeing a substantial reduction in the “average” sale price being driven in some cases by bank owned foreclosure properties and short sales.  Even though we don’t see a great deal of this type of foreclosure activity in our market, many Buyers have taken note of this and most astute Buyers today will ask to see recent comparable sales, when they do get to the point of having some interest in a property.  In some cases it is difficult to find much of anything to give them in terms of sales over the last 4 to 9 months, which only tends to heighten their concerns about where the true value of a property really is and if this is in fact the right time to buy.  We will also be facing that problem now with lenders requiring appraisers to use only the most recent sales on financed transactions and sales from last year in many cases won’t qualify.  So we’ve got some serious issues to be dealing with but I am convinced that our market will continue to weather the storm better than many other markets across the country.  We’re committed to doing everything we can to help you get your property sold, hopefully in the very near future.

When will Spring arrive?  That’s the question on everyone’s mind these days.  What a disappointing weekend we had last Saturday and Sunday with the torrential rains on both days.  Not the kind of weather conducive to bringing people out looking at real estate.  I guess the good news is that when the nice weather does finally arrive, we are definitely going to have some very healthy green grass all around us to enjoy looking at.  In spite of the weather last weekend, I did have two showings on Saturday and two on Sunday on a new listing I took recently in Williams Bay, so we are seeing some activity beginning to take place.  Have you noticed that there is some positive news being reported about real estate these days?  Not so much with the sales numbers and statistics, as those numbers are still showing declines in most cases through the month of March, but more to do with a higher sense of optimism about the future.  In two recent articles I saw, one referred to the so called “bottom” being in sight and the other talked about the increased number of first time Buyers deciding to purchase now.  Much of the increased activity does in fact seem to be related to first time Buyers, possibly taking advantage of the $8,000 tax credit recently passed in Washington, and a number of sales are happening in some parts of the country on REO or bank owned property that is priced in many cases at below market prices.  However it starts and whatever it starts with, if the public hears that people are electing to buy now, that can only have a positive effect on the market overall and encourage more Buyers to have the confidence that now is the time to take action.

There continues to be numerous signs of optimism for the real estate market as we head into Spring and the nicer weather that’s just around the corner.  I follow several real estate forums and belong to a number of networks with many other successful agents across the country and I’m hearing good things about the amount of general activity that agents are starting to see in a number of markets.  Unfortunately, the sales numbers are down YTD from past years here in Walworth County but hopefully we’ll begin to see those increase as we get into the season.  We are seeing a lot of new inventory coming on the market and that will continue to keep pressure on asking prices, making it more important than ever to be priced realistically and competitively.  I saw an article in  USAToday  this week that briefly mentioned the Lake Geneva area, I assumed they were talking about a unit for sale in Geneva National that has been on the market for some time without much activity.  It seems like the only news the media talks about when it comes to real estate these days is the bad news and that does not help us in our attempts to convince prospective Buyers that this is a good time to buy.  We do continue to try to promote the positives like low mortgage interest rates with money readily available and warning about the danger of waiting on making a purchase, thinking that the so called bottom is yet to come.  There is a good selection of property to choose from right now with many Sellers having adjusted their expectations and asking prices to reflect the current market conditions.  Interest rates will not remain this low into the future and eventually inflation and appreciation will cause prices to rise, so all in all, this really is a great time for a Buyer to make the decision to move forward and buy now. 

Well except for the snow last weekend, it seems like things are beginning to show signs of improvement with the real estate market in general.  I have found myself to be busier than normal for the last several days with a number of Buyer showing appointments and several listing appointments with potential Sellers.  There was certainly a mix of good and bad news with the stock market and the end of the first quarter of 2009.  I saw an interesting article in USA Today that showed that the Dow was down just over 13% for the first quarter of the year, but was up over 7% for the month of March.  So hopefully that is a sign that things are pointing up and we’ll see continued signs of an economic recovery.  I follow several real estate networks on the Internet and there is definitely a common theme with many agents in various parts of the Country reporting a pickup in sales and just an overall more upbeat general discussion going on.  Let’s hope that it continues and the media begins to pick up and report some of the more positive news to help the buying public understand what’s really going on out there.  This is another example of a recent news story in USA Today about low interest rates, now down below 5% for a 30 year fixed rate, and the effect on refinancing.  Hopefully these lower rates will translate soon into help encouraging sales as well.

Contact Bob Webster at Keefe Real Estate for all your real estate needs in the Lake Geneva Area.  It's easy to search for a home or condominium on Lake Geneva at Bob Webster's Lake Geneva Real Estate Search Site.

We finally had a couple of beautiful days in a row last weekend in Lake Geneva.  Let’s hope there are more to come very soon.  I don’t mean to use the weather as an excuse for seeing fewer showings and less activity than normal, but there is just no substitute for warm spring like weather and sunny days to bring prospective Buyers out to look at real estate.  This applies to both the primary home market and especially to the second home market.  Last Friday we finally finished a week with positive gains in the stock market.  I think if it could be a trend that continues into the spring and summer it would go a long way towards giving the real estate buying public some long overdue assurance and confidence that this is a good time to be in the market.  Buying today at a time with favorable interest rates and some very good values available in the market would seem to be a prudent strategy.  You’d probably be surprised to know how many prospective Buyers many of us deal with on a daily basis who have some level of interest in making a real estate purchase, but are completely misinformed about what is really happening out there in the real world and the realities of where our market is.  Many have an extremely dim view of the present conditions as well as the future and it’s a constant struggle to try to give them examples and evidence that support taking a much more positive and optimistic view.  I continue to believe in that and will continue to work hard on your behalf.  On a lighter note, we’ve been trying a new marketing idea for the last few months with Comcast in Chicago that highlights some of our second home listings to the Chicago market.  If you are a Comcast Digital Subscriber, or know someone who is, you might find it interesting to check it out.  You need to dial in 888 on the TV remote, select Real Estate, Home Listings and begin a search.  There is a category for southern Wisconsin, which I believe we are the only local company participating.  We’d be interested in your thoughts or any feedback you’d like to offer.  

Contact Bob Webster at Keefe Real Estate or go to www.LakeGenevaProperty.com to search for lake front home, condominium or vacant land on any of the lakes in Walworth County and Western Kenosha County.